For those considering buying a property, the above all paints a limited time window in which the “buyer’s market” we’ve been in may last.
The Two Minute Market Update is intended to keep readers apprised of what’s going on in local real estate markets and in the global financial markets that affect real estate via inflation, interest rates, capital flows and public policy. It is best suited for those not able to keep up with all the news every day, but still wanting to be informed.
TMMU – North Vancouver Buyer’s Market Fleeting
See the most recent monthly statistics for Lynn Valley and North Vancouver real estate.
The buyers on the sideline that everyone has been hoping would be thrust into action have begun to materialize. Sales data through the third week of the month is on track to exceed September of 2024 numbers and that is important for one major reason: The Real Estate Board will release their September stats package next week. It gets picked up by all of the major news outlets, and amplified by most realtors (like me). Combined with the interest rate reduction received last week (more on that below), this will reinforce the narrative of a market on the upswing. There hasn’t been a sense of urgency for buyers in the past couple of years. But nothing gets Vancouver home buyers to act like the fear of missing out (FOMO) on price gains. The magnitude of September’s uptick will depend on the remainder of this week’s and early next week’s sales data.
Lynn Valley Entry-Level Houses ($1.4-2.1M) | All North Vancouver
Lynn Valley Move-Up Houses ($2.1M-2-8M) | All North Vancouver
Before getting too carried away, let’s remember that Greater Vancouver housing is still chronically unaffordable. The desire for a stable roof overhead is also chronically in demand. The federal government has taken it upon themselves to improve affordability. But the weakening market (especially in Greater Toronto) is affecting the economy, employment and the tax revenue that comes from it. Might the federal budget, scheduled for release on November 4th, said to contain “generational investment”, simply provide more liquidity to the economy and housing market and push asset prices higher? There is decades-long precedent of exactly this. It would be the path of least resistance to improve a struggling economy.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates, as did the Federal Reserve, last week and Canada’s banks all responded by lowering their prime rates upon which variable rates are calculated. Fixed interest rates are also starting to become available well under 4% as bond yields are trending lower. For those considering buying a property, the above all paints a limited time window in which the “buyer’s market” we’ve been in may last. Luckily, for those inclined to patience, seasonality is still on your side. While a hot October market could extend into November, the abundance of listed properties may still yield bargains in the winter months. There remains a lot of geopolitical uncertainty to untangle between now and next spring’s busy period. For seller’s, patience may be rewarded.
Lynn Valley Townhouses | All North Vancouver
Lynn Valley Condos | All North Vancouver
Stock markets continue extending their gains despite broader economic weakness in both the US and Canada. Much of this is “multiple expansion” as the AI-related boom is priced into future earnings expectations. There is a very obvious risk that this doesn’t materialize in the kind of earnings being expected. Canadian investors would be theoretically better protected as much of the gains north of the border are attributable to financials companies posting earnings beats and resource companies expecting improved investment atmospheres for their projects.
Gold is continuing its march to new all-time highs as the expectation of inflation (driven by lower interest rates) causes some to flee to the protection of scarce assets like gold. Bitcoin should be benefitting from the same, but it has been plagued by large liquidations of original investors cashing out portions of their very large holdings (aka. distribution). The gradual inflows into ETFs and institutional purchases has not been able to keep up, sending the bitcoin price down by about 10% from its highs. Oil and other energy commodities are weakening in price overall. Gas prices locally are dipping below $1.60 as the switch to winter blend and improved refinery operating in Washington State adds supply. Hooray!
Matthew Stiles
Did you enjoy the market update? Subscribe here to receive them direct to your inbox. Feel free to message me at matt@stilesre.ca or call 778-227-3507 to discuss how the above may affect your largest asset and how to keep me in your corner when it comes to making real estate decisions.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this column is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. While I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, I make no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, completeness, or reliability. Any actions taken based on this information are at your own risk. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.