Perhaps further rate cut chatter will do the heavy lifting of getting buyers off the sideline
The Two Minute Market Update is intended to keep readers apprised of what’s going on in local real estate markets and in the global financial markets that affect real estate via inflation, interest rates, capital flows and public policy. It is best suited for those not able to keep up with all the news every day, but still wanting to be informed.
TMMU – Digging For Grandma’s Silverware In The Attic, October 8th , 2025
See the most recent monthly statistics for Lynn Valley and North Vancouver real estate.
The expected sales bump in the final week of September came with a whimper and the monthly numbers only marginally beat last year’s figures. This didn’t stop the optimistic headlines like “Real estate groups in Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley predicting stronger fall market.” Regardless, buyers remain emboldened in the negotiating process. Their numbers appear to be rising with foot traffic at open houses (my – and colleagues’ – anecdotal observations). In North Vancouver, the middle and higher end properties woke up and finally began transacting, sending median and mean prices higher. October has had a decent start to the month, but it will be a difficult comparable with last year’s activity to beat and continue the bullish narrative.
Lynn Valley Entry-Level Houses ($1.4-2.1M) | All North Vancouver
Lynn Valley Move-Up Houses ($2.1M-2-8M) | All North Vancouver
Perhaps further rate cut chatter will do the heavy lifting of getting buyers off the sideline. A single cut by the Bank of Canada is currently considered 75% likely before the end of the year. In the US, consecutive cuts are priced in for the next three meetings at least. Upcoming data that may influence these plans include Canadian employment later this week, US inflation next week, followed by Canadian inflation the week after. As the US government shutdown drags on, the impact on their economy will grow as a very large component of total spending is reduced considerably.
Lynn Valley Townhouses | All North Vancouver
Lynn Valley Condos | All North Vancouver
Bond markets haven’t shown a willingness to continue pressing lower, despite the odds increasing for future rate cuts. I think this is important. Trying to think like a bond trader risks putting one in an insane asylum, but they must be looking at the spending habits of governments, weakening growth and the expected fiscal tsunami that any further weakness will likely result in. That will cause inflation, so they’re not willing to bid bonds higher (and yields lower) until they see some kind of restraint. Therefore, don’t expect fixed rates to drop substantially. Betting on governments to keep spending would make borrowing at under 4% (if you can find it) a possible value.
Stocks continue to make new all-time highs in what is starting to become a templated opening to this paragraph. Increasing scrutiny is looking at the viability of this bull market in persisting. Of course, the AI investment boom is very real and will eventually deliver world-changing productivity improvements, help develop other new technologies and probably things that we can’t even foresee right now. But how that is quantified today and translated into values for companies is extremely flimsy. Investment dollars appear to be circular between companies, and that has the makings of a bubble. Until the music stops, the bubble will keep expanding. If the investment turns into earnings, then it could expand even further.
Central banks and governments attempting to keep their economies out of the downside of a business cycle has some seeking a flight to safety. That has gold pushing past $4000/oz, bitcoin hitting new highs above $125,000 and even silver pushing toward $50/oz for the first time since Rubik’s cubes were new. That will have some digging through the attic for grandma’s silverware to melt down and trade for mortgage payments – or strawberries. The debasement trade is “on”. If it’s allowed to continue, expect the narrative to expand to real estate as a “safe haven” asset also.
Matthew Stiles
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this column is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. While I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, I make no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, completeness, or reliability. Any actions taken based on this information are at your own risk. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.