The Bank of Canada declared their cutting cycle is “done for now” and there is no expectation from the market that they are bluffing. Mortgage rates might be at or near the lowest they will go for this cycle.
The Two Minute Market Update is intended to keep readers apprised of what’s going on in local real estate markets and in the global financial markets that affect real estate via inflation, interest rates, capital flows and public policy. It is best suited for those not able to keep up with all the news every day, but still wanting to be informed.
TMMU – Federal Budget Special, November 5th, 2025
See the most recent monthly statistics for Lynn Valley and North Vancouver real estate.
Even as the increased number of sales for detached homes in North Vancouver came through as expected in October, the broader condition of a buyer’s market remains intact for the time being. An interest rate cut at last week’s central bank meeting helps buyers to afford slightly more, but something else is needed to create a sense of urgency sufficient to stop the bleeding in prices and absorb the supply overhang. Whether that will eventually come from some resolution to the trade dispute between Canada and the US (and resulting job insecurity for many), or a tax policy change, mortgage regulation change or something else remains to be seen. As I write this, the federal government’s budget is being released, which may offer some clues to the above.
Lynn Valley Entry-Level Houses ($1.4-2.1M) | All North Vancouver
Lynn Valley Move-Up Houses ($2.1M-2-8M) | All North Vancouver
Now that we’ve had some time to digest the budget, we know that there will be no immediate rescue of the housing market. There were also no new taxes or fees intended to cool the market further. Of the measures being implemented, a previously announced GST exemption for first-time buyers of new homes priced below $1.5M will provide some relief to both buyers and the sellers these homes. This could mean up to $50,000 in savings for a buyer. The government is also proposing to eliminate the Underutilized Housing Tax, something that applied primarily to developers sitting on vacant land. They might be slightly more inclined to add to their inventory of building lots without this extra carrying cost. Otherwise, the remaining measures are mostly directed toward purpose-built rental housing (like the $20B increase to the Canada Mortgage Bonds available for financing of these types of projects). It’s apparent that this government does not view individual investor-landlords to be a solution to the housing supply problem and would prefer corporate landlords or the government themselves to fill that role.
Lynn Valley Townhouses | All North Vancouver
Lynn Valley Condos | All North Vancouver
A bigger takeaway from the budget might be that it is undoubtably inflationary in the near and medium term as the sheer size of the deficit is growing faster than ever before. To protect one’s purchasing power during inflationary times, people turn to assets that will preserve their value. Real estate is one such asset. The bond market did not react strongly either way, so there does not appear to be any immediate fear of this inflationary spiral taking hold. Of course, the budget needs to pass a house vote for any of the above to be official. There’s no guarantee they will have the needed votes. The Bank of Canada declared their cutting cycle is “done for now” and there is no expectation from the market that they are bluffing. Mortgage rates might be at or near the lowest they will go for this cycle.
A chorus of market analysts suddenly piped up and said the stock market is overheated and due for a nasty correction. There was no direct cause for this, so the timing is interesting. Overvaluation is nothing new. Other analysts see reason for Nvidia to increase from a $5T to 8 or 9 trillion valuation on the AI buildout. This would necessitate much higher prices for all the big tech names. Buckle up, volatility could increase significantly as these competing views wrestle, shaking out weak hands along the way.
Bitcoin has experienced a 20% decline in price as a continued exodus of long-term holders sell a portion of their very large holdings. Who is buying their coins? None of the usual suspects (ETFs, Microstrategy, or institutions) are disclosing major purchases. Could it be lots of smaller new investors, or is it a larger entity? Like with the Chinese Central Bank’s gold purchases, who the buyer is is important. A central bank or sovereign is not likely to resell their coins soon, so could provide a stable base for future gains. Oil dipped below $60 again as sanctions on Russia and US strategic reserve buying are already old stories.
Matthew Stiles
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this column is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. While I strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, I make no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, completeness, or reliability. Any actions taken based on this information are at your own risk. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.